This weekend sees the first round of Euro 2012 play-off matches and in the closest tie on paper, Turkey face Croatia. The first leg is to be played in Turkey on Friday with the return leg coming just four days later in Croatia.
Latest Betting Odds:
First Leg: Turkey 7/5 – Draw 11/5 – Croatia 40/17
To qualify: Turkey 11/10 – Croatia 4/6
Turkey
Turkey just about made it through to the play-off stage after finishing second to run-a-way group winners Germany in Group A. They held off the challenge of Belgium with a 1-0 win against Azerbaijan securing the second spot ahead of Belgium who failed to beat Germany.
The Turks lost three times during qualifying (twice against Germany and a 1-0 defeat to Azerbaijan) and drew on two occasions (against Belgium and Austria). Their qualifying performance did not set the European football scene alight and they will be without influential playmaker Nuri Sahin. Their home form should prove invaluable in this tie and if they can pick up a win on Turkish soil then they stand every chance of defending that lead in Croatia. In their last 14 home matches they have lost just once (to Germany) and won 12. Their only draw came in a 0-0 friendly draw to Korea.
Their formidable home record should leave them in a great position to qualify here, but it is likely they will need a two goal cushion to quell the threat of Crotia back on home soil. Turkey have only won one of their last six away Internationals, five of these games came during this qualifying process and a 3-0 win against minnows Kazakhstan came right at the start of the Euro 2012 qualifying process.
Croatia
Croatia really should not be in this position at all. They were in arguably the weakest qualifying group but could only finish second to Greece in Group F. They were shocked by Georgia early on in qualifying, succumbing to a 1-0 away defeat before losing to Greece in their penultimate tie, a result that proved terminal in their quest to win the group. On paper Croatia should have the beating of Turkey and Tottenham playmaker Nico Kranjcar is expected to be fit to play and follow up his four goals in qualifying thus far. Frontman Eduardo scored three times in the group stages and he will look to fire his country all the way to Ukraine and Poland next summer.
Croatia won three of their final four qualification matches and have lost just three of their last 23 away International matches. If they can escape from Turkey with anything other than a defeat is it very difficult to justify anything other than Croatia progressing to the Euro 2012 finals next summer. Their home form is great, they are unbeaten in 13 games, winning 11 of those and their last defeat came in the 4-1 defeat to England two years ago.
The Verdict
The first leg of this two legged tie is key. Both the sides have a terrific home record but Croatia’s away record is much better than Turkey’s. If Croatia avoid a heavy defeat in the first leg then they will be firmly in the driving seat going back to Croatia. Turkey will need a two goal cushion from the first leg to stand any chance of holding off a Croatia challenge that will see them come out all guns blazing at home. It is difficult to see past Croatia progressing here, however Turkey are more than capable of holding off their challenge away from home and should not be discounted totally.
